My party people, it is time to rock and roll.
Polls in Kentucky’s primary election close at 6 p.m. local time tonight, aka … basically right now. Results should start rolling in soon after, but will definitely start coming in after 7 p.m. Eastern/when polls close in the western part of the state.
The last few elections have wrapped up pretty quickly the night of, but with so many state legislature races, I am personally not expecting an early evening.
For now, let’s run through some of what to watch for and where to track results.
Some spots to watch election results
To give y’all a bit of an idea of what’s to come, I’m planning on lightly tweeting as the results come in tonight, with a full recap of what went down for a Thursday-ish newsletter.
A few ways to get your news Tuesday night:
Twitter is probably going to be the best place for real-time updates and hot takes from politics reporters. That’s also where they share links to full articles and live blogs of the day’s events, for those who like reading more than a sentence at a time.
I highly recommend checking out KET’s livestream.
Their live coverage starts at 8 p.m. Eastern tonight. They tend to have a livestream on TV and online, and during the 2023 general election, I believe they had a YouTube stream running. (The latter of which is great for folks such as myself, who have a Roku TV but don’t know how to actually work it.)
Feeling like pregaming the results? KET focused Monday’s Kentucky Tonight episode on dissecting the races a few of the state’s top politicos are tracking. You can watch it here.
You can also keep an eye on the numbers through a few different sources. I’ll start by recommending the Secretary of State’s election night portal, which will have the results from races across the state.
You can also check out your fave local or national news outlet for results — most should have some sort of real-time updates with numbers and maps and whatnot.
Typically, I bounce between a few different spots, including the aforementioned SOS portal, throughout the night. Every election night is different, so I tend to make a game-time decision as to which one is my favorite.
Some more local options:
LexVote will be monitoring Lexington city council results for those of you in Fayette County.
The Jefferson County Clerk tends to have Louisville-specific results on their site. (As of ~30 minutes before polls close, I’m not seeing a link to their results page for tonight, but it will likely be somewhere here.)
A few (hopefully helpful) things to keep in mind
As someone who has tracked election results a time or two, just a few suggestions:
Keep an eye on the percent of the vote in. It is not uncommon for one candidate to see a quick surge early in the night as the first votes come in, but please note that might just be, like, 4% of the overall vote.
For those of you monitoring the results for just one county (ahem Jefferson County), make sure to note whether or not that candidate’s district includes other counties. I’m not sure which or how many of the state legislative races fall into that pile tonight, but just be aware that if a candidate is winning in Jefferson County, they might be losing in the other counties they’re trying to represent.
This is only the primary. It will only get crazier from here (looking straight at you, school choice amendment that won’t be on the ballot until November).
A quick look at what’s up
Some of the races you will see:
U.S. President: Yes, even though it is lowkey already decided.
U.S. House: All six of Kentucky’s Congressional districts are up for election. (No U.S. Senate races in Kentucky this year, sorry)
State House races: All 100 state reps are up for election.
State Senate races: Kentucky’s state Senate has 38 people and half of them (19) are up for election this year.
Some of the races you might see:
You may also see some races for Commonwealth’s Attorney or other judicial-ish roles. Best way to know is to, again, check your ballot.
There are local races sprinkled throughout the state, including some city council races and at least one spot with a wet/dry vote (basically, should we allow alcohol y/n).
Congressional races to watch in KY
As previously noted, all six of Kentucky’s U.S. House seats are up for election this year.
The Gallery Pass focuses on state-level policy and politics in Kentucky, so I typically wouldn’t mention federal races, but I had some requests, so here’s an overview of what’s up:
District 1: Only has one Dem (Erin Marshall) and one Republican (incumbent Jamie Comer), so this one will be decided in November.
District 2: Two Dems are facing off in the primary. The winner will face Republican incumbent Brett Guthrie in November.
District 3: Yee-haw, both sides are facing contested primaries in this Louisville-centric race. We have three Dems (one of whom is Morgan McGarvey, running for a second term) and two Republicans. The respective winners will meet in November.
District 4: This one just has three Republicans, so it will basically decided in the primary. This is the race where Thomas Massie is being challenged by failed gubernatorial candidate Eric Deters.
District 5: This one also just has Republicans (four of them, including longtime Congressman Hal Rogers), so it, too, will be basically decided in the primary.
District 6: Five Dems are facing off Tuesday to see who gets to challenge Andy Barr in the general election.
State House races, bby!!
All of Kentucky’s 100 state House seats are up for election, and nearly 200 people are running in the primaries for them. (State reps serve two-year terms, btw.)
59 of those races are contested in some form or fashion. When I say that, it could mean the seat is facing some primary action on one or both sides, or just has one Dem and one R who will contest each other in November.
Of those 59, my math is showing 25 are just straight up D vs. R, aka won’t be on the ballot until the general election.
That leaves 34 races with some sort of primary. And of those:
Just one has primaries on both sides of the aisle: District 29 in Louisville (Kevin Bratcher’s soon-to-be former seat)
Eight have just a Dem primary, and that winner will face a Republican later.
And on the flip side, 11 have just a Republican primary and that person will face a Dem in November.
Eight primary races will solely be Republicans, aka they will basically decide the winner because, you know, no challenger.
And six primary races will be just Dems, so winner take all.
Ooof, OK, here’s SOME of what I’m keeping an eye on:
Rep. Kevin Bratcher’s old seat — District 29
Bratcher, a Republican, is leaving the state legislature to try his hand at Louisville Metro Council, and a whole lot of people in that stretch of suburban-ish, south-ish, eastern-ish Louisville would like to replace him.
Three Dems and three Republicans are vying to claim that seat. So, this one’s noteworthy just because … v, v, v contested!
It is also interesting to watch because Louisville is generally known as a Dem stronghold, but that’s not always true in the more eastern and suburban areas, which lean red. It’ll be interesting to see which party wins out in that particular climate.
Rep. Josie Raymond’s old seat — District 41
Just like Bratcher, Raymond, a Dem, is leaving state-level politics for local affairs. Her current district — District 41 — leans pretty liberal and covers much of Louisville’s Highlands area.
This one’s interesting because Raymond took over that district a few years ago when everything got redistricted. It looked like she would need to primary against longtime state Rep. Mary Lou Marzian because of it, and then Marzian backed out and let her have it basically.
Now that Raymond’s leaving, though, Marzian was fast to jump back into the mix as a Dem. But then Rick Adams quickly challenged her in the primary. It is very much a challenge between legacy (Marzian) and a fresh voice (Adams). Marzian’s mailers tout plenty of Dem endorsements, but Adams seems to have more of the younger, more liberal-leaning energy on his side.
The winner will face Republican Sara-Elizabeth Cottrell, who tried to run for this office in 2022 and got second in the GOP primary.
Rep. Steve Rawling’s old seat — District 66
Wow, what a treat Northern Kentucky politics is! (I’m from NKY and I’m still Louisville’s reigning top politics reporter for at least two more months so I’m allowed to say that in an objective way.)
Basically, Rawlings, a Republican, is leaving the House to try his hand at the state Senate, meaning his seat is about to be vacant. And we have a very NKY match-up on the GOP side: one kinda middle of the road candidate, one v, v, v “liberty”-oriented.
Said middle of the road guy is former state Rep. Ed Massey, who lost this seat in 2022, and liberty guy is TJ Roberts, who I can only best describe as “liberty guy.”
This seat is based in Boone County, and IYKYK, and if you don’t know, I will try my best to rapidly explain the concept of the Boone County GOP to you. Basically, it is wild. All three NKY counties have liberty or tea party-ish streaks in them, but Boone County is a different breed.
A highlight of this race was definitely a recent debate between the two which was hosted by the Commonwealth Policy Center — a conservative group best known to me for handing me a thick printed paper packet of drag performances they found to be explicit during a committee hearing in 2023. During closing remarks, Massey tried to knock Roberts by noting the young lawyer had a CourtNet record (for trying cases … as a … lawyer), then baselessly accusing him of having a Grindr account (still haven’t seen any proof on that) and moving quickly to mention he lives with his grandparents. The crowd reaction was so bad they quite literally shut down the debate.
So, that’s, like, that’s NKY politics.
Oh, and the GOP winner will face a Dem in the general election.
Rep. Kim Moser’s seat — District 64
But wait, there’s more NKY politics.
Neighboring Kenton County has been lowkey spared from the liberty energy that has popped up in Boone and Campbell counties, but Rep. Kim Moser — a Republican running for reelection — is facing a liberty challenger: Karen Campbell.
The winner here will also face a Dem challenger later this year.
Rep. Killian Timoney’s seat — District 45
OK, moving on, hello Lexington!
The Republican primary for District 45 has been shaping up for a hot sec now. It really started when ~someone~ started sending out negative mailers against Timoney … like last year.
Timoney, who has a background in public ed and tends to lean more middle of the road politically, is facing off against a primary challenger named — I am not joking — Thomas Jefferson. Mr. Jefferson definitely leans more “liberty”-ish — so like more right of field than others.
The winner will face a Dem, Adam Moore, in the general election. I’d go ahead and bookmark that matchup now.
Rep. Josh Calloway’s seat — District 10
Ah, another liberty-leaning vs. someone more moderate on the Republican ticket moment, how fun and original.
Calloway is, again, definitely very “liberty” and has made a name for himself as a crusader for “parents’ rights” and “school choice” in Kentucky during his last few years in office.
He’s up against Julie Cantwell, who made a name for herself as an advocate for medical cannabis — a hot legislative topic that finally cleared the legislature last year.
The winner here will face a Dem in November to represent parts of Breckinridge and Hardin counties.
Rep. Danny Bentley’s old seat — District 98
So, Bentley’s not running for reelection, and the Dems are coming out for the Republican’s seat. Four Dems are running in the primary, and they’ll face a Republican in the November election.
Rep. Richard Heath’s seat — District 2
Heath, the Republican in charge of the House Agriculture Committee, is facing a primary challenger: Kim Holloway.
I’ll be honest: I haven’t been tracking this one at all, but I will be watching it election night thanks to a subscriber request.
State Senate! yee-HAW!
Nearly 40 people are vying for the 19 state Senate seats up for election this year. (Senators serve four-year terms.)
11 of those 19 seats are facing contested races, again, in some form or fashion.
Of those 11:
Four are just a Dem vs. Rep, so they’ll be handled in November.
Four will be basically be decided by the primary. (One has an independent candidate filed, and write-in candidates are always possible, so keep that in mind.)
The final three have one party facing a primary competition, but other party not, so the primary will figure out who is competing against the other party in November.
Here are a handful of those races that I find interesting and/or one of y’all asked me to watch.
Sen. Jason Howell’s seat — District 1
Tracking this one by subscriber request. Howell, a Murray Republican, is facing former state Rep. Lynn Bechler, who lost his seat in 2022 after redistricting forced him to run against another incumbent. (insert side eye emoji)
There isn’t a Dem running in this race, so this one is winner-take-all.
Sen. Adrienne Southworth’s seat — District 7
Oooof, this one’s been a long time coming.
Southworth, a Republican who has been forced by Senate leadership to sit alone in the corner with the Dems for the past two years, also fell victim to redistricting a few years ago, and so did at least one of her challengers, Aaron Reed, so this has been in the works for a hot sec. Reed leans more liberty and tends to be wearing a cowboy hat.
And then there’s a third Republican, Ed Gallrein, who has raised and spent by far the most out of the three. (insert another side eye emoji, but like a nonjudging side eye) Gallrein and Reed are both former Navy SEALs; Southworth, to my knowledge, is not.
This seat covers Anderson, Henry and Shelby counties, plus part of Jefferson County (remember what I said about making sure you look at all of the counties in a district when tracking results?) The GOP primary winner will face a Dem later this year.
Sen. Gerald Neal’s seat — District 33
Not sure what it is about these state Senate races, but, once again, insert side eye emoji here.
Neal is the Minority Leader of Kentucky’s Senate and has been in office since before Taylor Swift was born. This year, he’s facing well-known Louisville activist and former state Rep. Attica Scott to represent much of Louisville’s West End and South End, plus a bit of the Clifton-ish area.
I’m mostly interested in this race because of Scott. She left office after opting to run for Congress in 2022 instead of retaining her state House seat, and then losing to Morgan McGarvey in the primary. Neal is generally well-known and respected in Frankfort, but I think Scott’s popularity as an activist and overall name recognition may work well for her.
Michael Churchill rounds out the Dem ballot for the race. This area doesn’t have a Republican running, so the winner tonight will be, like, The Winner.
What’s up next in life
4 days until the inaugural Gazebo Fest (May 25-26)
14 days until Kentucky’s 2024 interim session starts (June 4)
33 days until my birthday, yee-haw (June 23)
55 days until most new laws go into effect (July 15)
74 days until Fancy Farm 2024 (Aug. 3)
168 days until Election Day 2024 (Nov. 5)
231 days until Kentucky’s 2025 legislative session (Jan. 7, 2025)
Where to find me
As always:
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Venmo: Not asking for money but … I mean, if you’re interested.
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Some programming notes
As I mentioned earlier, I’m planning on doing a primary election recap newsletter later this week. So, be on the lookout, plz.
The upcoming weekend is both a holiday weekend and the inaugural Gazebo Fest (love a lil hometown hero action), so barring some sort of massive news event between that recap newsletter and Memorial Day, I’m going to hold off on writing until the following Thursday, May 30.
Also, if you’re a paid subscriber who requested a friendship bracelet and hasn’t shared your address with me yet, please email me! I’m starting to ship these out and would like to get them all taken care of over the next few weeks.
OK, happy voting, talk soon, byeeee!