Time to debrief, y'all
Yeah, so, the primaries...
Going to spare y’all from an intro because I know this is going to be a longer newsletter because we’ve got ~election results~ to discuss.
ICYMI: Kentucky’s primary elections happened Tuesday and we now know (with a few exceptions) either who will be in office next year or who will be running on the ballot in November in hopes of also being in office next year.
Kentucky’s Secretary of State and the state board of elections have until June 10 to formally certify the primary results. Under state law, any primary candidate can request a recanvass (basically, a fast recount of the votes) within 10 days. If the result doesn’t change, they can also request a more thorough recount.
Secretary of State Michael Adams said Thursday afternoon that his office has gotten two recanvass requests already (which we’ll get into later) and those will be done on May 30. We have a few other races that are pretty tight, so keep an eye on this.
Also, before we begin, please know that I — a single individual with very little resources — am trying my best here. I have a lot of ground to cover and will likely miss something or gloss over something. I apologize in advance.
And if you want to see more raw numbers, here’s the Secretary of State’s election results portal. This is where I got all of my numbers for this newsletter, btw, just in case something seems off.
Kentucky’s Congressional match-ups this fall
As I noted earlier this week, all six of Kentucky’s U.S. House seats are up for election this year. Not everyone had a primary, and not everyone will have a general election because the primary decided things. Here’s what’s up.
District 1
Did you have a primary? No.
Will you have a general election race? Yes.
The Democrat: Erin Marshall
The Republican: incumbent Jamie Comer
District 2
Did you have a primary? Yes — on the Dems side.
Hank Linderman won out.
Will you have a general election race? Yes.
The Democrat: Hank Linderman
The Republican: incumbent Brett Guthrie
District 3
Did you have a primary? Yes — on both sides.
On the Dems side, incumbent Morgan McGarvey beat Geoff Young and Jared Randall with 84% of the vote.
And for the Republicans, Mike Craven beat Dennis Ormerod on a 75/25 vote.
Will you have a general election race? Yes.
The Democrat: incumbent Morgan McGarvey
The Republican: Mike Craven
District 4
Did you have a primary? Yes — on the Republican side.
Incumbent Thomas Massie faced a few challengers, including failed gubernatorial candidate Eric Deters. Massie won.
Will you have a general election race? No — since no Dems filed to run, Massie will get another term (barring some massive write-in campaign in November).
District 5
Did you have a primary? Yes — on the Republican side.
Longtime incumbent Hal Rogers won that race.
Will you have a general election race? No — again, no Dems ran, so Rogers is back barring some big change.
District 6
Did you have a primary? Yes — on the Dems side.
Ooof, five people ran for a chance to face Andy Barr. It is looking like Randy Cravens won that opportunity with about 26% of the vote.
Will you have a general election race? Yes.
The Democrat: Randy Cravens
The Republican: incumbent Andy Barr
State house races: A few upsets ahead
OK, prepare to be overwhelmed. I was not the one who decided to have all 100 Kentucky House seats up for election during the same year, but I am the one forced to find a way to explain what went down and what you’ll see in November without running anyone away.
Let’s start by checking in on the key races I mentioned last time around:
Rep. Kevin Bratcher’s old seat — District 29 in Louisville
This one was the only House race with contested primaries on both sides of the aisle.
Per the Kentucky Secretary of State’s election portal, it is looking like Tim Findley will be the Dem in the race and Chris Lewis will be the Republican.
Worth noting here that each side had three candidates running, but Findley won by a much, much slimmer margin than Lewis did.
Rep. Josie Raymond’s old seat — District 41 in Louisville
In a lil fight of legacy Dem vs. newcomer, former state Rep. Mary Lou Marzian beat Rick Adams to become the Democratic candidate on a 42-point margin.
She’ll face Republican Sara-Elizabeth Cottrell in November’s general election.
Rep. Steve Rawling’s old seat — District 66 in Boone County
For the second time in a row, former state Rep. Ed Massey got beat. This time around, T.J. Roberts — a “liberty” guy — won the pretty closely watched primary with 74% of the vote.
For folks familiar with the Boone County GOP, this wasn’t really much of a surprise. Boone County has leaned more “liberty” in recent years, hence part of why Massey lost his seat in the first place.
Roberts will face Democrat Peggy Houston-Nienaber in the general election.
Rep. Kim Moser’s seat — District 64 in Kenton County
Incumbent Republican Rep. Kim Moser appears to have narrowly beat her “liberty” challenger Karen Campbell by, like, 84 votes or so.
I haven’t seen anything about a recount in this race yet, but stay tuned.
The ultimate winner will face Democrat Heather Crabbe in the general election.
Rep. Killian Timoney’s seat — District 45 in Lexington
Ooof, this was a bit of an upset. Timoney, a more moderate Republican who has been in office since 2021, lost against a much more “liberty” candidate Thomas Jefferson by around 44 points.
But remember how I said Tuesday to go ahead and bookmark this race for the general election? YEAH. Democrat Adam Moore, who didn’t have a primary but has been running a race already, honestly couldn’t have asked for a better match-up. It would’ve been much more difficult for him to face off against someone like Timoney, who routinely voted in favor of public ed and against things like the anti-trans SB 150 and therefore had some fans on the Democratic side, than a liberty candidate.
So, yeah, again, BOOKMARK BOOKMARK.
Rep. Josh Calloway’s seat — District 10 in Breckinridge and Hardin counties
“Parents’ rights” fan Rep. Josh Calloway defeated medical cannabis advocate Julie Cantwell with a wider margin that I expected — 79% of the vote vs. 21%.
Calloway will face Democrat John Whipple in November.
Rep. Danny Bentley’s old seat — District 98 in northeastern KY
Four Dems faced off for this one, and Tammie Wommack appears to have won.
But Joe Virgin, who got second, only lost by a few dozen votes, so this one might have some recount potential.
The winner will go against Republican Aaron Thompson in November.
Please note this is NOT the Aaron Thompson who runs Kentucky’s Council on Postsecondary Education. Different Aaron Thompson!
Rep. Richard Heath’s seat — District 2 in west Kentucky
Oh no, down goes Richard Heath, who has been in office since 2012 and currently leads the House Agriculture Committee.
His primary challenger, Kim Holloway, won this one with 52% of the vote.
And, since no Dem filed in this race, Holloway will not face a general election. See ya in Frankfort.
(Also, s/o to the subscriber who asked me to track this race — it wasn’t on my radar initially and it ended up being a good one to track.) (This is why we ask Olivia questions, y’all.)
And here are a few other things that popped up in the House races I find noteworthy:
Holy margin: The Democratic primary in Louisville’s House District 36 is heading to a recount after Woody Zorn won by FIVE VOTES.
Your vote matters, y’all — especially in the primary!
As I noted earlier, the two recounts on the books rn will happen May 30.
Hi, judges: Rep. Nima Kulkarni easily, easily won her primary in Louisville’s House District 40 by 56 points. And she doesn’t face a Republican challenger, so she should return for another term — if the courts agree.
Basically, in order to run for office, you need some signatures from some people in the same party as you. Apparently/allegedly one of Kulkarni’s signature people was not actively a Dem when acting as said signature people, leading to a court situation.
First court said she was fine; second court said no, this is bad, remove her; another court allowed her to stay on the ballot because it was so close to the election and the ballots like already had her on them, but plan on making a decision after the results come in (which they obvs have). So, keep an eye on this.
OK, time for state Senate results
The Senate has 1. fewer seats and 2. staggered elections, so this one should be less overwhelming than the House.
ICYMI, 19 Senate seats are up for election this year. Of those, only 11 have any sort of competition at all and of those, four got decided in the primaries.
So, here are how the races I mentioned last newsletter turned out:
Sen. Jason Howell’s seat — District 1 in west Kentucky
The Murray Republican won against former state Rep. Lynn Bechler, who lost his seat in 2022.
No Dem ran in this race, so Howell is back for another four years.
Sen. Adrienne Southworth’s seat — District 7 in uh kinda central-ish? KY?
After a fun four years of butting heads with the leaders of her party, Southworth came in last in her primary.
Aaron Reed, who I last described as “leans more liberty and tends to be wearing a cowboy hat,” narrowly won the three-way GOP primary, beating Ed Gallrein a little over 100 votes.
This one is heading to a recount, which, again, will happen on May 30. So, we’ll see which former Navy SEAL gets to replace Southworth.*
*There is a Dem running against the winner in the general election: Rhonda Davis.
Sen. Gerald Neal’s seat — District 33 in Louisville
Kentucky’s Senate Minority Floor Leader will return for another term after defeating popular activist and former state Rep. Attica Scott.
Neal ended up getting 55% of the vote, followed by Scott at 39% and Michael Churchill at 5%.
It was interesting to see who performed best, where in this race, which covers much of Louisville’s West End, plus part of South Louisville and then stretches into spots like Clifton. The area leans liberal, generally, but in a Dem primary, I was interested in how many folks would stick with the status quo and who would go for an arguably more liberal option. Here’s how it played out, courtesy Robert Kahne:
(FYI: Kahne has a whole thread of maps breaking down Tuesday’s results, fyi, should you be inclined.)
Um, so what happens now?
Well, only 166 days until the general election! (Not counting early voting, so the general is technically even closer than that.)
Obvs, folks who are facing a general election challenger will continue campaigning until then, but there might be a bit of a lull as people decompress following the primaries. But expect more ads, mailers, yelling, etc. over the next several months if you live in one of the election zones. (Those of you whose races were uncontested/decided in the primaries, I would tell you it is safe to turn the TV back on, but please remember there is a presidential race going on.)
Like I mentioned, there are also a handful of primary races that still need to be fully figured out — some are too close and need a recount, one is waiting on a judge to determine if it counts.
One big thing that has immediately started: the school choice amendment battle.
Protect Our Schools KY, a new coalition against the school choice amendment, launched Thursday with a press conference in Hazard, Ky. Per a press release from the group, it was the first of several launch events to be held across the state over the next month.
And the other stuff I’m counting down to…
12 days until Kentucky’s 2024 interim session starts (June 4)
We’re also 12 days out from the deadline to file for Kentucky school board seats (also June 4)
31 days until my birthday, yee-haw (June 23)
53 days until most new laws go into effect (July 15)
72 days until Fancy Farm 2024 (Aug. 3)
229 days until Kentucky’s 2025 legislative session (Jan. 7, 2025)
Where to find me
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Survey: Yes, AGAIN. (I should have some updates re: survey-inspired changes to the newsletter next week!)
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OK, I think that’s all. Remember that I’m taking the weekend off and should be back in your inboxes by next Thursday or so.
OK, byeeee!
Great comprehensive info. Would appreciate a glance and a follow if you could see your way there.